What people often miss on CPI day is that the number itself isn’t what moves the market. The common reaction is to check whether the 3.4% number is high or low. But it’s all priced in advance. The real driver of EUR/USD is the gap between the actual number and what the market was positioned for.
Even a 3.4% reading can cause dollar weakness if traders expect higher inflation. And the opposite scenario – weaker numbers that beat consensus expectations may drive dollar strength. According to Federal Reserve research, the price driver here is a surprise component rather than the headline.
Why the Expectation Gap Is More Important Than the Level
Forex is driven by expectations for interest rate decisions. And inflation plays its role by impacting expectations for future central bank policy. This is the reason why identical numbers may cause completely opposite reactions at different times. It depends
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