Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to ease further in July, with BusinessDay’s latest inflation nowcast projecting headline inflation at 15.51 percent, down from 15.91 percent in June. If confirmed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the reading would extend the gradual disinflation that has followed the agency’s 2025 rebasing exercise, although households are unlikely to experience immediate relief as the overall price level remains significantly higher than in previous years.
BusinessDay’s July Inflation Nowcast estimates that headline inflation will decline by about 0.4 percentage points from June’s reading, suggesting that price pressures continue to moderate. The pace of disinflation, however, remains dependent on exchange-rate stability, food supply conditions and global commodity prices.
The nowcast was generated using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model. The model estimates monthly inflation by combining lagged inflation movements with changes in the official exchange rate, business activity measured by the
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