Nigeria’s economic recovery is real. What is less convincing is the Nigeria Revenue Service’s (NRS) claim that the country is already “out of the woods”. Foreign reserves have been rebuilt, oil production has recovered, inflation has fallen sharply and real GDP is growing faster than a year ago. The International Monetary Fund says the reforms have produced “improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience”.
But the same evidence points to a recovery that remains incomplete. Debt-service pressure is rising, growth is still modest relative to Nigeria’s needs, foreign capital is returning overwhelmingly through financial markets rather than productive investment, and lower inflation has yet to restore the purchasing power lost during the post-2023 shock.
The most revealing measure is the government’s ability to pay for itself. The IMF’s 2026 Article IV data show interest payments consuming 40.8 percent of Federal Government revenue in 2024, rising to 53.2 percent in 2025. The
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