…Forecast strengthens case for MPC hold next week
BusinessDay’s Inflation Nowcast estimates headline inflation at 15.9 percent in June, with a likely range of 15.7 to 16.1 percent, ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics’ official release on July 15. If confirmed, the figure would be marginally below May’s 15.93 percent, ending three consecutive months of rising inflation. But the significance lies less in the small decline than in what it suggests about Nigeria’s inflation cycle.
After falling steadily for eleven consecutive months, inflation reversed course in March and continued climbing through May, prompting concerns that the country’s disinflation trend had stalled. June’s estimate suggests those renewed price pressures may have eased, but not enough to indicate a return to sustained disinflation.
BusinessDay’s Nowcast combines the previous month’s inflation, monthly movements in the official exchange rate, business activity measured by the Stanbic IBTC/S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and a
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