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The missing middle of electrification: Why Africa’s off-grid solar boom is rewriting the rules of energy access

One Nigerian village without a grid enjoys electricity every night. Another, officially connected to the national grid, does not.

It is a paradox that would have been almost inconceivable a generation ago. Yet as dusk settles across rural Nigeria, it is becoming increasingly common. In one community, children complete their homework beneath the steady glow of LED lights powered by a modest solar home system. A tailor runs an electric sewing machine long after sunset. A small shopkeeper keeps drinks cold and mobile phones charging. A few kilometres away, households connected to the national grid wait in darkness, hoping electricity will return before morning.

For decades, electrification was measured by a simple metric: how many kilometres of transmission line had been built and how many homes had been connected to the grid. Governments planned around it. Development finance institutions invested in it. Utilities were judged by it. That assumption shaped

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