Breaking down the factors driving the decoupling of the traditional inverse correlation between the US dollar and gold in today’s markets.
For decades, traders treated the relationship between the US dollar and gold as one of the market’s cleaner macro signals. When the dollar strengthened, gold often came under pressure. When confidence in the dollar softened, gold usually found support. It was never perfect, but it was familiar enough to shape positioning, hedging, and sentiment across global markets.
At times characterised by close alignment but also marked by clear divergence, the bond between the US dollar and gold has been a historical journey, featuring clear shifts in their relationship dynamics. For decades, the interrelation between the two followed a relatively predictable pattern, with the pair being viewed as one of the market’s most dependable macroeconomic signals.
However, the state of play in 2026 is different. Today’s dollar-gold relationship is almost
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