By Iyanuoluwa Abiola
Health experts have cautioned that declining malaria cases in Nigeria may not reflect the true risk the disease poses, urging authorities to look beyond prevalence figures.
They said focusing mainly on malaria prevalence, the number of people infected, could overlook how severe infections are and how actively the disease is spreading.
The warning was given on Tuesday during the 2026 Online Research Seminar organised by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Research in Malaria and Neglected Tropical Diseases, University of Lagos, with participation from researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Presenting findings from a sub-analysis of the 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey, Alexandra Blair said prevalence alone does not provide a complete picture of malaria burden.
She explained that two communities may record similar malaria prevalence but differ significantly in parasite density, meaning one may face a much higher risk of severe disease and continued transmission
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