Nigeria’s capital market is reacting positively, unlike any of its previous election cycles, and regulators and analysts are converging on the same explanation: investors have stopped treating the political calendar as the market’s biggest threat.
The Nigerian Exchange closed the first half of 2026 with a 47.4 percent return, its strongest pre-election half-year performance in almost three decades.
Data by CSL Stockbrokers shows equities have historically struggled in the build-up to presidential polls, losing 11.8 percent in 1998, 16.1 percent in 2014, and 17.8 percent in 2018. This year’s rally breaks that pattern by a wide margin, and the divergence has become the central talking point among market watchers ahead of the 2027 election.
For the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the resilience is not incidental. Speaking at the Mid-Year Capital Market Review, Mid-Year Macroeconomic Review and Investment Outlook, Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said
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