Nigeria’s economic debate often descends into absolutes. Supporters of President Bola Tinubu describe his administration as undertaking the country’s boldest reforms in decades, but critics counter that record deficits and persistent inflation expose a government that continues to spend beyond its means.
The evidence suggests a more nuanced picture: Nigeria is undergoing a fiscal adjustment but not yet a fiscal consolidation.
Measured by headline deficits, the government’s finances remain under strain. The proposed 2026 federal budget envisages a deficit of roughly N23.9trn, equivalent to around 3.9% of GDP. While substantial, it is not unprecedented. The Buhari administration ended 2023 with a deficit approaching 4.8% of GDP.
Debt servicing remains the government’s largest constraint. Around N15.8 trillion, roughly 45% of projected federal revenue, is expected to go towards servicing existing obligations.
Calling this “profligacy” therefore depends on definition. If profligacy means financing persistently large deficits through borrowing, the label has merit.
This post was originally published on this site.
